So, I have derived, with the help of probability theory, the necessary and sufficient conditions (just about – it assumes none of the probabilities are 0 or 1, etc) for a piece of evidence concerning Jesus’ resurrection (e.g. the empty tomb) to constitute evidence for theism in general.
The result? Where D = some datum, R = Jesus was raised from the dead, and T = theism, some datum D constitutes evidence for T iff:
[P(D|T&R)•P(R|T) + P(D|T&~R)•P(~R|T)] > [P(T)•(P(D|T&R)•P(R|T) + P(D|T&~R)•P(~R|T)) + P(~T)•(P(D|~T&R)•P(R|~T) + P(D|~T&~R)•P(~R|~T))]
Do I win the award for most unhelpful piece of information of the year?